NCRB data shows Gujarat’s crime rate against women remains below the national average despite its large population
A clipping from a Gujarati newspaper claims that the Gujarat government’s zero-tolerance policy towards crimes against women exists only on paper. It argues that the ground reality reveals a serious failure of law and order, particularly in ensuring the safety of women. Furthermore, it mentions three cases of sexual assault against minor girls that occurred within five days in different parts of Gujarat (Atkot, Bhavnagar, and Gandhinagar).
A significant portion of the clipping also alleges that the fear of the police has diminished, emboldening anti-social elements. It criticizes the government, stating that while law and order are deteriorating, ministers are preoccupied with their personal publicity and marketing on social media platforms instead of prioritizing women’s safety and taking effective measures. It also criticizes the government for speaking out against crimes in other states while turning a blind eye to local atrocities against women.
Another section of the newspaper provides statistics, claiming that over 72,467 crimes against women have been registered in Gujarat in the last nine years, with an estimated average of over 80,000 such cases reported annually. This figure suggests that approximately 22 crimes against women occur every day.
Recent reports highlighting various cases of sexual crimes against women have raised concerns about women’s safety in Gujarat. While such incidents are grave and demands strict action, it is important to examine official crime statistics to assess the overall situation.
In our fact-check report, we located the ‘Crime in India 2023’ report which was released on the website of The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) on 29 September 2025.
We examined the data from the table titled “Crime Against Women (Indian Penal Code (IPC) + Special & Local Laws (SLL) – 2021–2023” which shows that Gujarat has overall significantly lower sexual crime rate against women than the national average. (Archived link)
We examined the crime data with the population data (Archived link) from the NCRB and found that Gujarat’s total population in 2023 was approximately 717.9 lakh, making it one of the most populous states. Based on this data, Gujarat reported 7,805 cases of sexual crimes against women in 2023. When calculated per capita, the crime rate against women in Gujarat stands at 22.9 cases per 100,000 women. On comparing this figure with the national average crime rate of 65.3, Gujarat has significantly lower crime rate against women, despite its large population. This suggests that the lower rate is not result of a smaller population, but of fewer reported crimes per capita.
This inference is further strengthened when compared to other more populous states. Uttar Pradesh, with an estimated population of 2,264.8 lakh, recorded a crime rate of 58.6, which is double the annual rate in Gujarat. Maharashtra, with a population of 1,267.1 lakh, accounted for 77.5, while Rajasthan, with a population of 812.2 lakh has an even higher crime rate of 114.8.
Even when compared to less populous states, Gujarat stands at a relatively better position. Haryana, with a population of 303.3 lakh and Telangana, with a population of 381.3 lakh, has a crime rate of 110.3 and 124.9, respectively. Both states recorded significantly higher crime rate than Gujarat. This indicates that a higher crime rate is not merely dependent on population size but also reflects the state of law and order and underlying social factors.
Furthermore, the population-based analysis of the data also holds true the urban level. Gujarat has large metropolitan cities like Ahmedabad (63.5 lakh) and Surat (45.6 lakh), which are among the largest cities in India. Despite having a large urban population, which is generally considered hubs of higher reported crime, Gujarat’s state-wise crime data against women is lower than the national average.
Furthermore, the police charge sheet filing rate is 89.0% in 2023, which is higher than the national average of 77.9%. Charge sheeting in simple terms is the final step of the investigation when the police officially inform the court that they have found sufficient evidence to prove that the person is guilty of committing the crime. A higher-than-average charge sheet filing rate negates the assertion of systemic negligence and strongly indicates the institutional capacity to pursue cases.
The NCRB data for 2023 also reveals that the risk of rape by a stranger is statistically lower in Gujarat. Out of 634 rape cases reported in 2023, the perpetrator was known to the victim in 630 cases, while only 4 cases (0.6%) involved unknown or unidentified perpetrators. This ratio is considerably lower than the all-India average of 2.5% for cases involving unknown perpetrators. Compared to other large states, Haryana and West Bengal recorded 6.4% and 17.4% of cases committed by unknown perpetrators, respectively, while Rajasthan recorded 2.4%, Uttar Pradesh 2.2%, and Kerala 1.7%. Considering this data together, it indicates that in most rape cases in Gujarat, the perpetrator was known to the victim, such as a family member, friend, neighbor, or acquaintance, suggesting that the threat from strangers is statistically lower than in most other parts of India.
In conclusion, when population size and crime rates are taken together, the claim that Gujarat is generally unsafe for women is not supported by official NCRB data. Despite being one of the most populous states and home to major metropolitan cities, Gujarat’s sexual crime rate against women is significantly lower than the national average and also lower than that of many states with comparable populations. This data does not diminish the seriousness of the crimes, but using isolated incidents to suggest a statewide decline in women’s safety is statistically misleading.
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