There is a general belief, supported by history and contemporary developments, that India has become more secure in terms of internal security over the past decade. However, Congress supporters on the social media platform X vehemently claim that during Narendra Modi’s tenure, there have been more terror incidents, more soldiers killed in the line of duty, and more civilian casualties compared to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) tenure from 2004 to 2014.
Congress supporter Chikku asserted on X, ‘How does the safety of India under Modi’s rule compare to the safety under the UPA?
Incidents: UPA MODI
Terrorist Attacks: 109 780
Jawans Dead: 139 498
Civilians Dead: 12 215
Border violations: 563 5769
Can we trust Modi to Keep India safe ?’
How does the safety of India under Modi's rule compare to the safety under the UPA?
— Chikku (@imChikku_) June 27, 2024
Incidents: UPA MODI
Terrorist Attacks: 109 780
Jawans Dead: 139 498
Civilians Dead: 12 215
Border violations: 563…
The same claim was parroted by Sneha, Abhishek, Praveen Kumar, and Advocate Sanwar Ali.
In this article, we will analyze the total number of terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir and the northeastern region, the Naxal attacks, and other terrorist incidents across India during both the UPA and NDA tenures.
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Fact Check
We began our fact-checking by examining data from the Ministry of Home Affairs website. After thoroughly reviewing the information, we found substantial data on terrorist incidents, security personnel killed in the line of duty, and civilian casualties in Jammu and Kashmir and the northeastern region. According to the Ministry of Home Affairs’ 2013-14 report, there were a total of 7,220 terrorist incidents in Jammu and Kashmir between 2005 and March 2014. During this period, 778 security personnel and 1,378 civilians were killed.
Furthermore, we examined data on terrorist incidents in the northeastern region. We reviewed reports from the Ministry of Home Affairs from 2009 and 2013-14. After thoroughly analyzing and aggregating the data on terrorist incidents, security forces killed, and civilian casualties in the seven northeastern states (Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Tripura), we found that between 2004 and 2014, there were a total of 11,487 terrorist incidents, 504 security personnel killed, and 3,017 civilian deaths in these states.
Taking our investigation to the next level, we examined the Ministry of Home Affairs report from 2019. We found that between 2014 and 2019, there were a total of 1,482 incidents in Jammu and Kashmir, with 395 security forces killed in action and 148 civilian casualties. Additionally, data from the Ministry of Home Affairs’ 2022-2023 report revealed that between March 2019 and 2022, there were 417 terrorist incidents in Jammu and Kashmir, 158 security forces killed in action, and 145 civilian casualties. This means that from 2014 to 2022, there were a total of 1,899 incidents in Jammu and Kashmir, with 553 security forces killed in action and 293 civilian deaths.
Next, we analyzed data from the Ministry of Home Affairs reports for 2019 and 2022 regarding terrorist incidents in northeastern India. We found that in the seven northeastern states, there were a total of 3,194 terrorist incidents, with 241 soldiers killed in action and 436 civilian casualties.
Although there is no clear data available on border incursions during the UPA tenure, explicit data on border incursions in Jammu and Kashmir during the NDA tenure is available on the Ministry of Home Affairs website. Reports from 2019 and 2022-23 indicate that between 2014 and 2022, there were a total of 1,906 infiltration incidents.
Moreover, the Times of India reported in February 2024 that left-wing extremism-related violence in the country declined by 52% and resulting fatalities by 69% between the periods 2004-14 and 2014-2023. According to the Ministry of Home Affairs data, left-wing extremism-linked violence dropped from 14,862 incidents in 2004-14 to 7,128 incidents in 2014-23, a 52% decrease. The number of fatalities decreased by 69%, from 6,035 to 1,868 during the same periods. The deaths of security forces in Naxal attacks or encounters fell by 72%, from 1,750 in 2004-14 to 485 in 2014-23, and civilian deaths declined by 68%, from 4,285 to 1,383. Additionally, the number of districts reporting left-wing extremist violence fell by 53%, from 96 in 2010 to 45 in 2022, while the number of police stations reporting such violence decreased from 465 to 176 during this period.
Furthermore, for terror incidents outside Jammu and Kashmir and the northeastern states, as well as those perpetrated by left-wing militants, we examined compiled Wikipedia entries corroborated by news reports. During the UPA tenure, there were approximately 35 bomb blasts in trains, hotels, and religious sites, resulting in hundreds of injuries and deaths. In contrast, during the NDA tenure, the number of such terror incidents in these areas dropped significantly to just six.
In conclusion, the contrast between terror attacks during the UPA and NDA tenures is stark. The data speaks for itself: incidents dropped from 18,707 to 5,093, and civilian deaths decreased from 4,395 to 729 in Jammu and Kashmir and the Northeast. For the rest of India, one need only recall the period of frequent bomb blasts during the UPA tenure that shook the nation. Incidents such as the explosions during the Aarti at Varanasi Ghat, which rattled the mighty Ganga and claimed many Hindu lives, along with similar attacks in Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, and Ayodhya.
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